REWILDFIRE - Simulation of rewilding scenarios and wildfire regimes in temperate forests

Abstract

Temperate forest landscapes in the Alpine region face significant ecological and socio-economic challenges due to changing land-use practices and climate. In the last decades pastures and agricultural activities have been abandoned, leading to unplanned afforestation processes on previously managed unforested areas which might increase the flammability at the landscape scale. Additionally, drought and heat waves stand out due to their increasing frequency and intensity in the Alpine space, making fire disturbance more unpredictable and severe under climate change. These combined processes pose a direct threat to local communities’ livelihood and safety, while having dramatic impacts on the functioning of temperate forest ecosystems of the Alps. The REWILD-FIRE project investigates the trade-offs between potential benefits of temperate forest growth as encouraged by rewilding policies for climate change mitigation versus the impacts of increased wildfire hazard due to fuel load accumulation on carbon emissions under two climate change scenarios. The REMAINS R-package, a model to simulate land use changes, forest aging and wildfire processes, has been adapted and parametrized in 8 landscapes (50 km2 each) across four alpine geographic bioregions. The results allow to quantify the land cover transitions towards forested areas as well as carbon loss and emissions due to wildfires across different rewilding scenarios (Business as usual, Fire control policies, Fire-Smart rewilding), assessing carbon trajectories and overall carbon budget across 30-year simulations.

Publication
In Fire in Central European Ecosystems