REMAINS – Simulation of Landscape changes and Wildfire dynamics under different Land Use Scenarios

Abstract

The Alpine region, characterized by its unique biodiversity and complex topography, faces significant ecological and socio-economic challenges due to climate conditions and changing land-use practices. In the last decades pastures and small agricultural realities have been abandoned seeing a spontaneous reforestation on previously unforested and managed areas. Additionally, wildfires stand out due to their increasing frequency and intensity, driven by climate change and human activities posing a direct threats to human life and property and having a profound impact on the health and functioning of Alpine ecosystems. As such it is vital to investigate the trade- offs between the potential benefits of forest growth for climate change mitigation versus the negative impacts of wildfire on carbon emissions and ecosystem health. The REMAINS R-package, a model to simulate land use changes and wildfire processes, will be adapted and parametrized for the study areas across four italian alpine geografic bioregions. The results will allow to quantify the hectars of land cover transition towards forested areas as well as forest loss due to wildfires across different land use scenarios, and further calculate carbon storage and emissions.